There are more than a million podcasts. The good news is that it’s easy to start one.
The top 1% of all podcasts account for 99% of all downloads.
That means that if your goal is reach, the long tail isn’t going to help much. The short head, even in a medium as wide open as this, dominates consumption. Lots of podcasts to choose from, but most people don’t choose.
Chris Anderson didn’t call the theory the ‘short head’, even though it’s the viral hits that everyone focuses on. The long tail is where most of the content (books, videos, small businesses, political ideas) land.
The long tail may be exactly where you want to be. But don’t hang out there if you need to reach the masses. The goal of reaching the masses is rarely compatible with the math of the long tail.
Someone is going to win that lottery, but it probably won’t be us.